USFRA Board Member Doug Berven of POET shares key findings from Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst, at the World Biofuels, Ethanol & Feedstocks Conference.
Today, U.S. Farmers & Ranchers in Action (USFRA) brought its landmark study, Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst, to Europe at the World Biofuels, Ethanol & Feedstocks Conference to show how biofuels can create new demand for European and American farmers alike. Developed by S&P Global Energy, the analysis finds that new demand gives farmers a reason to keep land and equipment in production, while strengthening food and energy security around the world.
“One of agriculture’s biggest challenges is keeping farmers and ranchers in business. While farmers are increasingly productive, demand hasn’t kept pace and costs remain high,” said Kevin Burkum, USFRA CEO. “Without new markets, that gap will only widen. This report shows how biofuels can create that new demand, keeping farms productive and rural communities strong while advancing environmental stewardship for the next generation.”
Over the next 25 years, global population growth is expected to slow, with parts of Asia and the European Union (EU) projected to lose a combined 220 million people from their population peaks by 2050. As demand for staple foods and traditional fuels stabilizes or declines, food and feed demand alone may no longer be sufficient to absorb agricultural productivity gains.
Without new markets, the report shows, agricultural supply will outpace demand, squeezing EU farmers. Meanwhile, European policies intended to protect food supplies have constrained the production potential of crops used as biofuel feedstocks, contributing to lower yields and declining cultivated acreage. In fact, between 2010 and 2025, Europe’s harvested rapeseed area declined approximately 12%, from 7.0 million to 6.3 million hectares, while wheat acreage fell 8%, to approximately 24 million hectares. Imports of both crops increased by triple digits during that same period.
Under an optimized scenario, the study projects significant opportunities for agricultural production, farm incomes, and global food security:
Greater Grain and Oilseed Production: Global supplies of grains and oilseeds suitable for biofuel feedstock production could nearly double by 2050. Crucially, this growth is projected to come primarily from productivity gains without expanding acreage, with approximately 82% of additional output attributed to higher yields.
Significant Growth in Crop Production: Global corn production could increase by more than 80% by 2050, with other crops also playing important roles in expanding biofuel production. Sugarcane ethanol production is expected to grow in Brazil, India and Thailand, while surplus wheat in Canada and the EU and crops such as cassava and sorghum in Africa present additional opportunities for biofuel development and agricultural growth.
Stronger Economies: Expanded markets would create new opportunities for the nearly 29 million people working in agriculture across Europe and Central Asia.
More Stable Farmland and Farm Incomes: Expanded biofuel demand could help preserve crop acreage, stabilize farm incomes, and sustain investment in rural communities. Under this scenario, ethanol could account for nearly 50% of global road gasoline demand by 2050, up from roughly 7% in 2025, with additional opportunities in aviation, maritime shipping, and biomaterials. This growth would also benefit the broader agricultural supply chain.
Stronger Food and Feed Supplies: Expanded biofuel demand can complement rather than compete with food production. Under the optimized scenario, food and feed supplies could increase 45% by 2050, supported by higher crop yields and biofuel co-products such as dried distillers’ grains and soybean meal.
These findings put to rest the “food versus fuel” debate. The issue is no longer productivity, but demand. Expanded biofuel markets can create new opportunities for farmers, drive investment and preserve farmland while strengthening food and energy security across Europe.
As electrification grows across Europe, the study highlights biofuels’ potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in hard-to-electrify sectors such as aviation and maritime shipping. Climate-smart agricultural practices, renewable energy at refineries and carbon capture offer additional opportunities to lower ethanol’s carbon intensity while supporting soil health and water conservation.
The report also challenges assumptions about indirect land use change, finding that biofuel expansion does not inherently require additional farmland. Instead, productivity gains, not land expansion, can allow agriculture to meet food, feed and fuel demand.
The study emphasizes that sustained agricultural demand is essential to driving investment and innovation. Strong biofuel demand can help close significant yield gaps worldwide, expand access to technology and boost productivity in emerging markets, strengthening food security while helping farmers produce more with fewer resources.
To learn more about USFRA, click here. To read the full report, along with fact sheets, charts, and other essential reading for farm advocates, click here.
